Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 11.675296 13.104083 14.744115 16.791036 19.314156 22.373792 26.448351
2024-10-13 9.613097 11.264075 13.297781 16.054554 19.808992 24.936661 32.862878
2024-10-20 8.305560 9.981803 12.136269 15.212681 19.689613 26.342952 37.887352
2024-10-27 7.397124 9.053373 11.249108 14.509427 19.505919 27.463822 42.749492
2024-11-03 7.459212 9.387152 12.069094 16.309533 23.397979 36.173175 66.139902
2024-11-10 7.218911 9.264028 12.208401 17.085240 25.806817 43.233116 92.600787
2024-11-17 6.639428 8.598267 11.464378 16.318967 25.296853 44.227356 103.989223
2024-11-24 6.294972 8.243506 11.151949 16.218346 26.000323 48.163824 130.049058
2024-12-01 5.969328 7.889202 10.802738 15.999720 26.415440 51.600285 160.481013
2024-12-08 5.721529 7.632662 10.582553 15.975702 27.223119 56.458168 210.115446
2024-12-15 5.542329 7.466942 10.491779 16.171497 28.551770 63.563607 303.045683
2024-12-22 5.267110 7.133972 10.096896 15.742472 28.357240 65.836442 371.921135
2024-12-29 5.064491 6.917398 9.904251 15.731127 29.291853 73.130688 585.690999
2025-01-05 4.769038 6.537022 9.405866 15.059451 28.453182 73.445573 712.367203
2025-01-12 4.483594 6.158546 8.886980 14.296044 27.246904 71.775645 792.313780
2025-01-19 4.239669 5.836158 8.447350 13.656548 26.269400 70.733330 909.363114
2025-01-26 4.358746 6.108053 9.066896 15.290398 31.907098 106.108383 85488.971502
2025-02-02 4.328282 6.129507 9.237838 15.991440 35.197238 137.194390 NaN
2025-02-09 4.119390 5.839761 8.814486 15.298935 33.859243 134.312636 NaN
2025-02-16 4.000052 5.697101 8.657891 15.207871 34.519358 148.824074 NaN
2025-02-23 3.875513 5.539940 8.464330 15.009906 34.774855 161.002577 NaN
2025-03-02 3.779753 5.428006 8.349882 14.988148 35.663923 182.234052 NaN
2025-03-09 3.712385 5.361986 8.319059 15.165461 37.362594 219.480929 NaN